China – North Europe Ocean Freight: 6-Month Rate Trend & Q4 2026 Outlook

Note: Spot rates (Shanghai to Rotterdam), base ocean freight only, excluding BAF, ETS, THC and EU ETS carbon surcharges.

Rate Trend Summary

Spot ocean freight rates from China to North Europe rose continuously from April 2026 and reached a six‑month peak of USD 4,680 per FEU in July. The upward trend was fueled by pre‑Christmas inventory stocking by European retailers, extra sailing distances caused by Red Sea rerouting, and carriers’ blank sailings to manage available capacity.

After July, the market cooled gradually. European importers finished seasonal stocking ahead of schedule. New large container ships entered the Asia‑Europe trade lane, adding capacity. The pre‑Golden Week export slowdown in September further pushed spot rates down to USD 3,700 / FEU.

There is a notable gap between spot rates and long‑term contract rates. Big shippers enjoy contract prices 15–25% cheaper than the spot market, while SMEs are more exposed to spot price volatility.

Market Prognosis (Oct–Dec 2026)

• October (Short-term): Rates are forecast to stay within USD 3,400–3,800 per FEU. Cargo volumes will remain low after China’s National Day holiday. Carriers will keep limited blank sailings to prevent sharp price drops.
• November–December: Base case points to a gradual decline. New vessel deliveries will keep increasing capacity. Weak European consumer demand and post-season destocking will reduce import orders. Rates may drop to USD 3,000–3,400 / FEU by December.
• Major risks:
  • New security events in the Red Sea could force more Cape of Good Hope rerouting and trigger a quick freight hike.
  • EU ETS carbon charges are permanent extra costs and are not included in the base rates above.
  • Congestion at Chinese loading ports or European discharge terminals may temporarily tighten vessel space and lift rates.

“July’s peak came from front-loaded seasonal stocking in Europe. Our baseline forecast sees Asia-Europe spot rates trending down through Q4, but Red Sea disruption remains the biggest wildcard that can rapidly change market conditions.” — Senior shipping analyst, Xeneta